By: Dr. Pashko R. Camaj, Doctor of Public Health Sciences*/
In some parts of the United States (US) we are seeing an increasing number of Covid-19 infections. While some are quick to label it the beginning of a ‘second wave’ of Covid-19, this is only a continuation of the wave that started earlier this year. Even though several states are reporting seven-day average highs of new coronavirus infections, we must understand that the virus acts and spreads like a wildfire, in which people are the trees that fuel the fire. In March and April, when most of the country was under some form of stay-at-home or lockdown order, we were spread far apart from one another and that slowed or prevented the virus (fire) from spreading!
As we open our society, we will see new cases of infections being reported. The increased testing will also show us that as more testing is done, the more cases are found. While we review these new cases, we must be on lookout for the numbers of hospitalizations and differences in the infection rates. They will tell us much more than simply looking at the number of new cases.
The pandemic is still with us and it will be with us a while longer. The science tells that the dangerousness of this virus has not changed, even though we saw a drastic drop of cases in many regions, New York being one of them. The situation is not fundamentally all that different from a few months ago. For the pandemic to die down naturally and in a way allow life to go back to normalcy, the population needs to achieve something we call herd immunity. For viruses in general, herd immunity could possibly be achieved when a significant percent (60-80 percent) of the population is immune. But no area in the US is anywhere near that figure.
We know that the ‘herd’ immunity without a safe and an effective vaccine can be achieved only through a massive amount of pain and death. Although significant progress has been reported in the search for a vaccine, it may take some time before it becomes widely available. But we also know that ‘herd’ immunity is not the only way for us to control the pandemic. An aggressive system of testing and tracing the contacts of the infected people will help us manage the spread and contain any outbreaks to small clusters. The difficulty of managing this infection, is that it takes an average of five days for a person to show symptoms after being infected with Covid-19, but it can take up to fourteen. A person can be contagious a day or two before they start feeling symptoms (or never develop symptoms at all), and may remain contagious until several days after symptoms end. This all means that by the time new cases start to appear in the data, a wave of infections is already well underway. The increase in cases in some communities now is the result of exposures that began several weeks ago.
These new infections, though not a second wave, are not a surprise to many in public health. We have been aware of the possibilities of new spikes in infections as we open our society. We still have a highly transmissible virus, and most of the population remains susceptible to it. So keeping in place what has worked in reducing the numbers, including aggressive national testing, tracing, and isolation efforts, and universal facial covering and masking, will make it that much harder for the virus will find new people to infect. This is especially true for places that have populations that are more susceptible to infection-elderly and those with preexisting health conditions. Maintaining the most powerful thing protecting them for now – social distancing – is paramount to keeping them unexposed to the virus. This pandemic is not about to just end and go away, so let us keep up the fight and not become complacent!
*Vice-President of Pan-Albanian Federation of America -VATRA