David L Phillips – Page 9 – Dielli

Lost Iraq

February 22, 2017 by dgreca

By David L. Phillips*/

Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan — The battle for Mosul is underway. It will be bloody, but the Islamic State will be defeated. Beyond Mosul, a political plan is needed to defeat Islamism in Iraq and prevent ISIS from morphing into a new, even more murderous movement.

ISIS was able to seize Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, with less than a thousand fighters because Iraq’s Sunnis welcomed them. Twelve divisions turned tail, abandoning state of the art military equipment provided by the US to the Iraqi armed forces and police. Former Premier Nuri al-Maliki, a strident Shiite politician, polarized the country. Sunnis thought anything was better than Shiite domination until they discovered the harsh reality of life under ISIS.

The 2005 power-sharing constitution sought to harmonize sectarian and ethnic differences between Iraqis. However, the constitution was never implemented. After fourteen years of civil war, it is time to recognize that Iraq is not a functional unitary state.

The Trump administration should allow Iraqis to break-up Iraq, reconstituting in three parts. Enfranchising Sunnis as stakeholders with control over their governance, security, and resources would encourage moderation among Sunnis living in Anbar, Nineveh and Saladin governorates. They deserve an entity of their own.

Iraq’s break-up would legally affirm the de-facto independence that exists in Kurdistan today. Kurds are staunchly pro-American and a proven partner in the fight against ISIS.

The rest of Iraq, overwhelmingly Shiite with Baghdad as its capital, would include the holy cities of Najaf and Karbala, as well as oil fields in the southeast. Iraq would inevitably remain under Iranian influence with security provided by Popular Mobilization Units, an affiliate of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Iraq became a proxy of Iran in 2003 when regime change empowered its Shiite majority.

Would newly-independent states emerging from Iraq’s break-up be viable? The Shiite region surely would; Baghdad would retain ownership of vast oil reserves in Basra.

Oil and gas fields in Kirkuk and on the outskirts of Suleimania would provide a revenue stream for Kurdistan.

Sunni areas have no hydrocarbon wealth. The terms of an amicable divorce, therefore, must include wealth-sharing so Sunni tribes are not without.

An independent Kurdistan is in America’s interest. Kurds are America’s best and only friend in the Middle East (except Israel).

Kurdistan’s independence would strengthen security cooperation with Kurdish Peshmerga – “those who face death.” Peshmerga have proven their mettle battling ISIS.

The Kurdistan Regional Government is a valuable source of intelligence, which helps US-led efforts to counter violent extremism in the region.

As a moderate, Muslim-majority country, Kurdistan represents an alternative to radical Islamism in Turkey and the Gulf States.

If anti-Americanism results in Turkey’s decision to deny the US access to Incirlik Air Force Base, airfields in Iraqi Kurdistan could become the staging ground for fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In this event, Iraqi Kurdistan would function as the eastern flank of NATO.

Not only is Kurdistan pro-American. It is friendly to Israel, cooperating in a variety of security and economic fields.

Trump promised to shake things up. A reality-based approach, recognizing Iraq as a failed state, is overdue and necessary.( Hufington Post)
*David L. Phillips is Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights. He served as a Senior Adviser and Foreign Affairs Experts at the US Department of State during the administrations of President Clinton, Bush, and Obama. He has published many books on the Middle East including “An Uncertain Ally: Turkey Under Erdogan’s Dictatorship”, “The Kurdish Spring: A New Map for the Middle East”, and “Losing Iraq: Inside the Post-War Reconstruction Fiasco”.

Impact of “America First” on US-Kosovo Relations

February 8, 2017 by dgreca

By David L. Phillips/

Director, Program on Peace-building and Rights, Institute for the Study of Human Rights, Columbia University/

In President Trump’s “America First” world, Kosovo cannot only ask what the United States can do for Kosovo. It must also consider what Kosovo can do for the United States.

There is a lot to build on. Albanians are staunchly pro-American. In turn, Albanians have had no better friend than the United States.US support for Kosovo, a country of two million people in the western Balkans, has always been bipartisan. With the collapse of Yugoslavia, Kosovar Albanians declared independence in 1992. Successive US administrations championed democracy and human rights in Kosovo, including the right to self-determination.

Serbia’s aggression resulted in the death of more than 10,000 Kosovar Albanians and the displacement of nearly a million. President Bill Clinton launched air strikes to drive out Serbian forces and prevent ethnic cleansing in 1999. President George W. Bush led Kosovo’s coordinated declaration of independence in 2008. Today, 113 countries recognize Kosovo’s sovereignty and statehood.

Yet, Kosovo is still not stable. Twenty percent of Kosovo, including Mitrovica and territory north of the Ibar River, is under Serbian control. Serbs have built a wall separating Mitrovica from the rest of Kosovo. Serbia threatens to annex Mitrovica, citing the “Crimea model.”

Kosovo always enjoyed a special relationship with the United States. After Trump’s election, however, a resurgent Russia (Serbia’s backer) and an intransigent United States puts the special relationship at-risk.

Vojislav Seselj, the leader of Serbia’s Radical Party, urged Serbian-Americans to vote for Trump. He called it a vote “for the future of Serbia.” Serbs celebrated the US election outcome, heartened by Trump’s pro-Russian stance. Days after the US election, billboards went up in Mitrovica with Trump’s picture proclaiming: “Serbs stood by him all along.”

Kosovo is a tinderbox. A Russian donated passenger train traveling from Belgrade to Mitrovica was stopped by Kosovo authorities at the Serbia-Kosovo border on January 18. The train was decorated with Serbian Orthodox icons from monasteries in Kosovo. “Kosovo is Serbia” was written on the train in 21 languages. When Kosovars protested, Serbia’s President Tomislav Nikolic threatened to send the Serbian army to defend the Serbian minority in Kosovo.

US Secretary of Defense James Mattis offered assurances to Kosovo during his confirmation hearing: “[Kosovo is] an example of what happens when the international community, led by America, commits itself to the defense of its interests and values.” He endorsed a constitutional change with parliamentary support allowing Kosovo to establish an army. Kosovo currently only has a National Guard.

According to General Mattis, the US remains committed to Kosovo’s security. About 4,600 NATO troops from thirty countries are deployed to Kosovo as a trip wire against renewed Serbian aggression. About 650 US troops are based at Camp Bondsteel in Eastern Kosovo.

While the testimony of General Mattis was welcome, Trump’s patience is not without limit.

Kosovo’s political elite are notorious for corruption. Some Kosovar officials remain in office simply as a shield from prosecution.

Kosovo’s economy is a basket case. Unemployment is 45 percent; youth unemployment is much higher. With limited economic opportunity, Kosovo youth are susceptible to radicalization.

The rise of Islamic extremism is especially worrisome. Though 90 percent of Kosovo is Muslim, Kosovars were known for their nationalism not religiosity. The US Institute of Peace (USIP) has documented shocking levels of religious militancy. Hundreds of Kosovars joined the Islamic State. According to USIP, “Kosovo has become a prime source of foreign fighters in the Iraqi and Syrian conflict theaters relative to population size.”

Like it or not, “America First” is the current credo now defining US-Kosovo relations.

Kosovo can demonstrate its value as a partner by highlighting efforts to prevent violent extremism (PVE) and to combat terrorism. As a bastion of religious tolerance and moderation, Kosovo can be a positive model for countries in Southeastern Europe.

In November 2016, Kosovo’s counter-terrorism police arrested 19 people allegedly preparing to attack a soccer match between Israel and Albania. In addition, the cell was plotting other attacks in Albania, Kosovo, and across the Balkans. The Kosovo Intelligence Agency should declare and deepen its cooperation with US officials in the field of counter-terrorism.

Kosovo’s justice ministry is taking a hardline on Kosovars returning from the Islamic State, instituting a mandatory sentence of six months and up to 15 years for ex-combatants. Beyond law enforcement, Kosovo has also developed a soft power response, emphasizing education, economic development, and moderate messaging by imams.

More can be done. Kosovo politicians are in denial about the ongoing problem of radicalization. Honesty and political will could establish Kosovo as a leader in prevention, enforcement, and re-integration.

Kosovo’s National Guard can be an asset to NATO-led peacekeeping and stability operations. As the National Guard moves towards becoming a bona-fide army, the Kosovo government should offer to partner its security forces with NATO. Inviting capacity building would accelerate Kosovo’s integration into NATO and other Euro-Atlantic structures.

In addition, Kosovo has extensive experience with detection and removal of anti-personnel land mines and improvised explosive devices. Kosovo demining experts could be the core of special units, working with UN Demining Action Centers around the world.

Kosovo was a project of the international community for decades. To remain relevant, Kosovo must demonstrate its value to the Trump administration. Greater security cooperation would serve Trump’s “America First” agenda. It would also advance Kosovo’s interests.

David L. Phillips is Director of the Program on Peace-Building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights. He served as a Senior Adviser and Foreign Affairs Export to the State Department during the administrations of Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama. He has written many books including “Liberating Kosovo: Coercive Diplomacy and US Intervention.”

The Virus Of Serbian Nationalism

January 11, 2017 by dgreca

By David L. Phillips/*

Ramush Haradinaj, the former Prime Minister of Kosovo, was arrested in Paris on January 4 under a 11-year old Interpol warrant requested by Serbia. The Government of Serbia demands France extradite Haradinaj to face war crimes charges. France should deny the request for extradition and release Ramush Haradinaj, who has already been twice acquitted by international tribunals.

Haradinaj’s arrest in Paris has ratcheted up tensions and fanned the flames of future conflict in the Balkans. “The extradition request is an act of war,” A Kosovar intellectual told me. “There will be an explosion if France sends him to Serbia.”

Serbian nationalism led to ethnic cleansing in the 1990s, which destroyed Yugoslavia. Serbia today is not much different than Milosevic’s Serbia, despite the veneer of civility.

Serbia’s President, Tomislav Nikolic still champions Milosevic’s project to occupy neighbors and establish greater Serbia. The Interior Ministry of Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic insists on the arrest of Haradinaj, playing to Serbia’s nationalist base.

In 1999, Serbia occupied 20 percent of Kosovo north of the Ibar River. A wall was erected in Mitrovica to formally divide the city.

Belgrade’s recent actions show continuing ill will towards Kosovo. Chapter 35 of Belgrade’s EU accession process requires good faith by Serbia in its negotiations on normalization of relations with Kosovo. Serbia’s manipulation of Interpol’s red card process is an abuse of this commitment.

Simply put, normalization between Serbia and Kosovo is a charade, as along as Serbia violates Kosovo’s sovereignty.

Kosovo should establish Serbia’s withdrawal from North Mitrovica as a condition for resuming the EU-moderated political dialogue on normalization.

And the EU should suspend its talks with Belgrade on Serbia’s accession until Kosovo’s territorial integrity is restored.

The onus is on Serbia. Normalization starts by withdrawing its appeal for Haradinaj’s arrest. Furthermore, Serbia should cease its occupation of Mitrovica and stop its campaign against EU recognition of Kosovo.

Milosevic disinterred Prince Lazarus, the Serbian royal who died in the Battle of Kosovo in 1389. The remains of Lazarus were paraded around the country to stoke Serbian nationalism. The virus of Serbian nationalism is alive and well. It is time to bury Prince Lazarus once and for all.(The Huffington Post)

*David L. Phillips is Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights. He served as a senior adviser to the European Affairs Bureau at the State Department from 1999-2001. Phillips is author of Liberating Kosovo: Coercive Diplomacy and US Intervention.

Lessons from Kirkuk for Mosul and Nineveh Province

December 1, 2016 by dgreca

By David L. Phillips/

Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights, Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights/

Lessons from Kirkuk can inform plans to stabilize Mosul and Nineveh province after Mosul is liberated from the Islamic State.Kirkuk and Nineveh have similar characteristics. Both are made up of diverse ethnic and sectarian groups. Nineveh has four major regions: Mosul City, Tal Afar, Shengal, and the Nineveh Plains.Mosul is almost entirely Arab with some Chaldean and Assyrian Christians. Tal Afar, just west of Mosul, is Nineveh’s second city. Both Sunni and Shiite Turkmen reside in Tal Afar. Adjoining the Turkish and Syrian borders, Shengal is mostly Kurdish with a large population of Yazidis in Sinjar, as well as Sunni and Shiite Shabaks. The Nineveh Plains are sparsely populated by Sunni Arab tribes, dotted with Christian villages such as Tall Kayf, Qaraqosh, and Shikhan.

The battle for Mosul will cause extensive physical damage from improvised explosive devices, booby traps, and street-to-street combat. Mosul’s residents are traumatized by occupation and the imposition of brutal sharia law.

Plans for Mosul must be part of a larger plan for Nineveh Province. Delivering services are at the core of post-conflict stabilization. Decentralized government is also critical. Decentralization includes local security and community control over the economy and natural resources.

Mosul requires an urgent infusion of humanitarian assistance, including food, water, and shelter. Temporary camps can accommodate people displaced by the conflict, while local officials work with international agencies to create conditions for the return of those displaced. Even with emergency preparedness, it will be some time until Mosul’s inhabitants can return home.

Reconciliation must be a part of the post-conflict plan. To break the cycle of violence, it will be important to prevent reprisals against Sunnis who may have collaborated with ISIS. Actions by the Iraqi Armed Forces and Shiite militias called Al-Hashd Al-Sha’abi must be monitored to prevent revenge-taking. Transitional justice incorporates reconciliation as the basis for social reconstruction.

Services will require money. The UN and donor countries can contribute to emergency relief. However, the Government of Iraq (GOI) will be responsible for ongoing costs of water, electricity, and other energy supplies.

The Iraqi constitution requires the central government to distribute funds to every province based on its population. However, Baghdad has been notoriously slow to disburse funds. Iraq is experiencing a financial crisis. Restarting distributions in territories liberated from ISIS will take time and vetting. Delays risk polarizing Nineveh’s Sunnis from the Shiite-dominated central government.

Local councils have a critical role, making decisions about how funds will be spent. Nineveh has districts and sub-districts whose local leaders know what communities require. Financing decisions should be made at the local level, avoiding bureaucratic delays imposed by the provincial council and the Governor.

Transparency will be essential to make sure that funds flowing to local councils are spent in ways they are intended. Audit committees could be established in each community to mitigate corruption and ensure efficiency.

Article 1 of the constitution defines Iraq as “a federal state.” Article 122 of the Iraqi constitution provides for power and resource sharing at the local level. In addition, the Iraq Parliament passed the “Decentralization Law” (Law 21 of 2008) further enshrining power-sharing arrangements. Practical steps decentralizing power in Nineveh could be a model for devolving powers in other parts of Iraq.

Decentralization must first and foremost affect the security sector. Local police should be drawn from the communities they serve, reflecting their ethnic and sectarian make-up.

Local governance must have resources to provide basic services such as health care. Supporting local schools is critical to preventing a “lost generation” of youth in Nineveh. Health care and education have been priorities for Kirkuk.

Funds are also needed to stimulate jobs through reconstruction and development. The best way to reduce local tensions is through an economic stimulus that creates jobs at the grass-roots. The Kirkuk authorities regularly consult with directly affected groups to ensure their participation in investment decisions.

The Governor has a critical role to play. The Nineveh Governor should meet regularly with the provincial council and local councils so there is a routine dialogue on conditions and best practices, guiding decisions. As in Kirkuk, dialogue can help diffuse tensions.

Kirkuk is a complex environment with many competing interests. For sure, Kirkuk could have done better, but Kirkuk has done well to promote peace and progress through services for the people and giving local leaders a real voice in decision-making.

The problem with Iraq has always been too much power exercised by the central government. In response, Kirkuk has established informal ties to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Aggregating interests has proven useful in dealing with regional challenges, such as populations flows.

Similarly, Nineveh may want to form a region comprised of other provinces in western Iraq that have a Sunni majority, such as al-Anbar. Forming regions is sanctioned under Article 119 of Iraq’s constitution.

Iraq’s political reconciliation rests on a commitment to power-sharing and decentralization. Kirkuk’s leaders and residents can advise their brothers and sisters from Nineveh, who face the daunting challenge of stabilization in wake of ISIS occupation. US and international experts are also ready to provide useful expertise, in coordination with local partners.

David L. Phillips is Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights. He worked on “The Future of Iraq Project” at the State Department’s Near Eastern Affairs Bureau during the Bush administration.

Erdogan’s “Inner Stalin”

July 21, 2016 by dgreca

by David L. Phillips*/

After last week’s failed coup attempt, Erdogan warned: “This latest action is an action of treason, and they will have pay heavily for that.”

“This move is a great favor from God. Why? Because it will allow us to [purge] the armed forces, which need to be completely cleansed.”

Erdogan is turning Turkey into a giant gulag.

In the past 5 days, 50,000 military officials, police, judges, journalists, governors and civil servants have been detained, suspended, or fired.

People are being arrested and jailed with no legal authority. Their whereabouts unknown.

Every university dean – more than 1,500 – have been forced to resign; 15,000 educators have been suspended.

People are prevented from leaving the country. No one with an official passport can travel. Employees at state institutions need special permission.

Progressives and “oppositionists” are at-risk. Background checks are underway to investigate their ties to Fethullah Gulen, the Pennsylvania-based preacher who Erdogan accuses of plotting the coup.

There is no end in sight. Erdogan declared a three-month state of emergency.

The Obama administration rightly condemned the coup. Takeover by the military is not the path to democracy. Now US officials are speaking out against purges in Turkey, but they have little leverage.

Secretary of State John Kerry warned, “There must be no arbitrary purges, no criminal sanctions outside the framework of the rule of law and the justice system.” Kerry said NATO would “measure” Turkey’s actions. “NATO also has a requirement with respect to democracy.” He raised the possibility of reviewing Turkey’s NATO membership.

When Erdogan suggested Turkey might reinstate the death penalty, which it abolished in 2004, EU foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, cautioned: “No country can become a partner state if it introduces the death penalty.” She added, “We call for the full observance of Turkey’s constitutional order and we…stress the importance of the rule of law. We need to have Turkey respect democracy, human rights and fundamental freedoms.”

Mogherini’s warning has apparently fallen on deaf ears. Coup plotters are being tortured and paraded on television. Erdogan threatened to hang those involved in the coup. A young soldier was beheaded, his execution broadcast on social media. It is unknowable how many others have been tortured or killed.

The fact of the matter: Erdogan could care less what is said.

Exposing Erdogan’s corruption is the only way to influence his conduct.

Reza Zarrab, a dual Turkish-Iranian national with close ties to Erdogan, was arrested at the Miami
International in May. The US attorney in charge of prosecuting the case, Preet Bharara, has promised to expose Zarrab’s money laundering and gold sales, which sought to evade sanctions on Iran.

Zarrab may testify against Erdogan, his son Bilal, and Erdogan’s inner circle. The US attorney should quickly publish Zarrab’s indictment, naming beneficiaries of his crooked business.

After the indictment is unsealed, the US should impose sanctions on everyone implicated in the indictment. It should freeze their overseas assets and ban their travel and the travel of their family members.

History teaches us that dictators ignore toothless warnings. Hitler and Mussolini were democratically elected, like Erdogan. They were oblivious to international pressure.

Criminal indictments for corruption and targeted smart sanctions are the only available tools to mitigate Erdogan’s sweeping crackdown.(Courtesay Hufington Post)

Mr. Phillips is Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights. He served as a Senior adviser and Foreign Affairs Expert to the US Department of State during the administrations of Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama.(Kortezi: Huffington Post)