Rafaela Prifti/
The United States intends to launch further strikes at Iran-backed group in the Middle East, the White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday, following the last days attacks on Tehran-aligned factions in Iraq, Syria and Yemen over the last days. The diplomatic efforts by the Biden administration continue with Secretary of State Antony Blinken currently on his fifth trip to the region since October. He is visiting Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar and Israel in the coming days focusing on the return of hostages in exchange for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza. The Yemen strikes are running parallel to the unfolding U.S. campaign of retaliation over the killing of three American soldiers in a drone strike by Iran-backed militants on an outpost in Jordan.
On Friday, the U.S. carried out the first wave of that retaliation by striking targets in Iraq and Syria. The strikes are the latest military actions in a conflict that has spread into the Middle East since October 7, when the Iran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip, calling it a justified response to “Israeli crimes against the Palestinian people.” Since then, it is reported that Hezbollah has fired at Israeli targets at the Lebanese-Israeli border, Iraqi militias have fired on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis have fired on shipping in the Red Sea and at Israel itself.
Secretary Blinken is making a push for ‘enduring peace’ through a US-brokered deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has no formal diplomatic relations with Israel ad currently does not recognize Israeli sovereignty. The deal relies on ending Gaza conflict and undertaking steps toward a future Palestinian state. Two senior regional sources say that Riyadh would not insist on Israel taking concrete steps towards a Palestinian state, instead it would accept a political commitment to a two-state solution.
While backing the fighting groups, Iran has so far avoided any direct role in the conflict. The Pentagon has said it does not want war with Iran and does not believe Tehran wants war either. Doubtless the Houthis forgotten war has now gone global. Senior research fellow in Arabic and Islamic studies at Pembroke College, Oxford University, Elisabeth Kendall examines the rise of the Houthis in Yemen from an Islamist movement in the late 1980s to a significant force in Israel’s war on Gaza. She evaluates the impact of disrupting Red Sea trade in terms of both the supply chain as well as driving up consumer prices and importantly the present risk of a major global escalation.
The Houthis are an Iran-aligned group based in Yemen, that is “at once religious, political and military,” Kendall writes. Yet, “the Houthis should not be considered a direct proxy of Iran as in the model of Hizbullah, at least not yet,” says the pro-bono international advisor to a cross-tribal council in Eastern Yemen. Kendall notes that the Houthis are pragmatic and “they will do Iran’s bidding as long as their interests align with and are served by Iran, as is currently the case.” Specifically, she argues “The Houthis have their own independent reasons for adopting a strategy of attacking Red Sea shipping, and their motives are at once domestic, regional and international. Domestically, they can frame themselves as the hero standing up for defenseless Palestinians, which rallies the base and helps them with recruitment. Regionally, the attacks on shipping, which the Houthis insist target only Israeli-linked vessels, enable the Houthis to tap into the general horror around the Arab world at Israel’s apparently indiscriminate bombardment of Gaza. It also increases Houthis’ leverage in talks with Saudi Arabia. Internationally, the Houthi attacks are winning maximum publicity, not only for the plight of Palestinians but also for themselves. Despite nearly a decade of war in Yemen, the world barely noticed the Houthis, and the conflict was often referred to as ‘the forgotten war’. Now at the front and center of an already spread-out conflict, the Houthis are making international headlines. After yearslong on and off conflict their standing from that of terrorist to political interlocutors may be jeopardized by starting a war with the US. They are on the cusp of being recognized as a legitimate political authority in Yemen, as signaled by the country’s UN Special Envoy at the end of December.
After nine years of civil war in Yemen went barely noticed by the international community, it now is currently tuned towards handing compromises in return for promises of peace. Would the US-led targeted military response work? Despite apparent reluctance to go to war by the power players, the aggressive ongoing military action under way is fraught with uncertainty for the region and the world. Everyone is watching and wondering if a miscalculation or an emotional reaction by any party might spark an all-out war.
“What seemed like a faraway problem in the Middle East is no longer so remote,” writes Kendall, founder of the “Modern Middle Eastern Vocabulary” series.
Photo: Secretary Blinken holds joint press briefing in Doha.