Archives for December 2022

Rafaela Prifti/

The emergence of the Coronavirus disease set in motion major economic and humanitarian crises testing society’s capacities to respond while generating far reaching and still evolving consequences. Nearly three years since the start of the pandemic, glimpses into the public health sector, the job market, finance and housing, war in Ukraine, climate, unions reveal the vulnerabilities of the year 2022. The pandemic has irreversibly changed Americans’ relationship with work causing widening ripple effects economically and culturally. In the financial sector, the tech stocks that flourished when Americans were staying home and were plugged in online have come back down to earth. High prices and growing interest rates have impacted the home buying market. The prices of some electric vehicle have declined. As demand ramps up, industry experts say EVs and gas-powered cars will cost about the same by 2025. As even more EVs are manufactured, they will become less expensive to produce, with some experts claiming they will be even cheaper than their gas-powered counterparts in just a few years.

Office occupancy is at less than half what it was pre-pandemic. The remote work revolution taught many office workers — and their employers — that office space wasn’t essential to work. It is a trend that is expected to last, according to researchers. On one hand the reduction of real estate space lowers the office footprint of the firms while it impacts the pay of janitorial services of union and nonunion members. Since the pandemic upended the world in 2020 the industries that have made a comeback include leisure and hospitality industry. At the end of November US hotel occupancy was at the same level it was in 2019. Despite the major changes inflicted on the restaurant industry as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, reports indicate that, along with fast causal and quick service, dining out improved significantly this quarter. Event industry leaders are optimistic as the attendance at sporting events has bounced back to pre-pandemic levels with concert sales lagging a little behind.

The Great Resignation

Job resignation rates remain high across the board. While the fallout from the pandemic and current trends of an aging workforce continue, thecomposition of the resignations has shifted to include higher paid workers increasingly in management roles. Even as high interest rates, high-profile layoffs, and a potential recession batter the job market, Americans have continued to quit their jobs at elevated rates. Some analysts think that the tight job market is partially a factor since it supplies better opportunities. The October report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics states that there were 10.3 million job openings in the US, or 6.3 percent of employment.

Inflation, Wages Up

The Federal Reserve is the government body that adjusts federal funds with the aim of achieving conditions that satisfy its dual mandate, as set by Congress: Keep prices stable and maximize employment. Therefore, the Fed raises interest rates when the economy starts overheating, high inflation, and cuts rates when the economy looks weak, high unemployment. The feds raised the interest rates several times this year signaling more to come. While down from its peak of 9 percent in June, inflation is still high. Prices for all goods are up 7.7 percent on average nationally compared with a year earlier. While the job market keeps adding jobs and raising wages, the rise in inflation cuts into the increase in earnings. While actual wages are up about 5 per cent over year, workers end up having less buying power due to inflation.

Record high Flu season

The last week of November saw more positive flu test results than any week on record going back to 1997. According to experts, the flu has also spread earlier and at a quicker pace than it has in previous years. Part of the explanation is the increased levels of testing. Hospitalization rates are four times as high as they typically are at this time of year. But the main reason is that the population has low levels of flu antibodies since many Americans didn’t get the flu in the past two years, while adhering to preventive measures like masks and quarantining. To protect against seasonal flu, infectious disease specialist recommend vaccination and other measures, including mask-wearing, hand-washing, social-distancing and quarantining when you feel sick.

Dobbs v. Jackson

New data from the Society of Family Planning shows that the number of clinician-provided abortions in nearly half of the US has plummeted in the wake of Dobbs v. Jackson decision by the Supreme Court effectively overturning the half-century-old Roe v. Wade. Notable, the data indicates a rise in the number of procedures in states surrounding those where abortion is illegal. The jumps show up in nationwide figures. Traveling for medical care to another state involves costs that are hard to cover by people with fewer means.

Home ownership

According to data gathered from S & P Dow Jones Indices existing single-family home prices went up just 8 percent through September this year. On a monthly basis, prices have actually come down for three consecutive months yet they remain high without any clear forecast on coming down in a meaningful way. Meanwhile, rising interest rates have made buying a home even more expensive. Home ownership affordability data shows that this category is currently the worst on record. The threshold is considered to be 30 percent of income, after which housing is considered “unaffordable”.

Remote Work

A full 79 percent of Americans who can work from home are doing so, either in a hybrid or fully remote setting, according to Gallup reporting. Considering some 56 percent of full-time workers, or more than 70 million Americans, are in remote-capable jobs, that has big impacts on the future of work in and out office space.

Unions Comeback

According to data from Bloomberg Law, preliminary numbers show that more than 1,000 unions have won elections in 2022— the most since 2015. Unions are also popping up in industries previously thought ununionizable, like retail. Retail name brands like Apple, Starbucks, Amazon, Trader Joe’s, and REI all saw successful union drives this year, despite a difficult unionization process in the US. The number of strikes from nurses to rail workers so far this year was up nearly 50 percent from last year, according to data from Cornell’s ILR Labor Action Tracker. Data also shows American approval of unions is at its highest level since the 1960s, countering the decades-long decline in union membership.

Big Social Media Platforms

According to Similarweb, Facebook ranks third in a list of the most visited websites in the world following Google and YouTube. Rival social platform Twitter ranked in fourth place and Instagram, another social app owned by Facebook, ranked fifth on the list. In April, owner Elon Musk, CEO of both Tesla and SpaceX, bought Twitter, a social media company, a decision that has invited even more controversy causing concern and consternation for the consumers as well as investors.

Tech Market

As tech companies have matured, in terms of rapid growth being able to generate incredibly high profits, the revenue is still growing for most of the major companies, but not as fast as it previously did. Companies like Apple, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft combined have lost more than $3 trillion in market cap this year. It has translated into hiring freezes and even mass layoffs, both moves that once were unheard of in Silicon Valley. In addition these companies have had to cut down on some of their more innovative projects. Although the big tech companies remain strong, they have shown that they are not immune from vulnerability.

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies and affiliated technologies like NFTs and Web3 were dominant in 2021 but have gone bust in 2022. Last month the spectacular fall of crypto exchange FTX caused much of the rest of the crypto industry to tumble. The collapse of FTX has been the biggest shock to crypto in years. FTX was the world’s second largest exchange, the entry point for millions of people to get into crypto. It was seen as one of the most trusted platforms, but collapsed into bankruptcy in days after its finances were revealed to be unstable. It remains to be seen if the implosion of FTX spells doom for crypto or another drop in its long-chaotic ride. Either way it reinforce the need to put in place a regulatory framework.

The War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine began in February when Russia invaded its neighbor. Since then Europe and the US have escalated sanctions against Russia while Ukrainians continue to endure missile strikes, blackouts and loss of life. The war has also become a source of growing international tensions. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System published a report stating that the global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A direct way to measure US involvement is its military aid. While the EU and the US continue to provide support for Ukraine, the expectations by investors, market participants, and policymakers is that a prolonged war has exerted a drag on the global economy, pushed up inflation, with a sharp increase in uncertainty and risks of severe adverse outcomes.

Supply Chain

The supply chain issues have eased up this year due in part to slowing demand, which in turn caused a decrease inthe cost of goods and delivery, along with shipping time. In order to deal with international supply chain problems, the Biden administration has made efforts to crack down on high shipping industry prices and moving more manufacturing to the US.

Electric Vehicles

The most well known electric carmaker Tesla is facing a number of issues stemming from a tightening economy to increased competition. This was a big year for electric vehicles, thanks to high gas prices, more affordable models, and government investment including a revamped tax credit. EVs made up nearly 6 percent of all new vehicle registrations in the third quarter, even as the industry grappled with supply chain issues. The figure represents a minority of total auto sales, yet it is three times the rate of two years ago, and a big step toward moving Americans away from dependence on fossil fuels. As companies like Ford and GM enter the market, Tesla’s share of new electric vehicle registrations dropped from 71 percent at the start of the year to 61 percent in the third quarter of 2022, according to data from S&P Global Mobility, showing even stronger growth of sales on a global level.